Reuters Report Predicts Tougher Times For Journalists In 2023

The media industry across the world could be hit with even more drastic changes in 2023 as changing business models are set to adversely affect the operation of newspapers, television (TV) and broadcast news, triggering more layoffs.

A recent report by Oxford University and Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism titled Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2023 revealed that more newspapers will stop daily print production this year due to rising print costs and the weakening of distribution networks.

Future Of Newspapers, TV and Broadcast News

Any publication that still has a heavy dependence on print circulation or advertising revenue is likely to run into severe difficulties this year. Regional and local newspapers are especially vulnerable, potentially leading to more government intervention in some countries to support the sector.

It goes on to state that TV and broadcast news will be at the forefront of journalistic layoffs as audiences are hit by news fatigue and competition from streamers. More TV broadcasters will talk openly about a time when linear transmissions might be turned off.

Broadcasters also face increasing disruption with rapidly declining audiences – across all age groups – for linear news bulletins and opinion programming. Most commercial TV and radio providers remain overly dependent on advertising or carriage fees and generate little direct revenue from viewers or listeners.

"Publishers are much less confident about their business prospects than this time last year. Less than half (44%) of our sample of editors, CEOs, and digital leaders say they are confident about the year ahead, with around a fifth (19%) expressing low confidence.

"The biggest concerns relate to rising costs, lower interest from advertisers, and a softening in subscriptions. Even those that are optimistic expect to see layoffs and other cost-cutting measures in the next year," stated the report in part.

Other than layoffs, Reuters predicted a spate of mergers, acquisitions, and partnerships as the industry tries to cut costs and bundle value in new ways.

Digital Media Companies Hit By Mass Layoffs?

Digital-born companies are also not immune, with the example given of BuzzFeed, an American Internet media, news and entertainment company with a focus on digital media. It is shedding off another 180 employees while Moning Brew, an email newsletter covering the latest news from Wall St. to Silicon Valley, is dismissing 14 per cent of its workforce.

Falling traffic from big social platforms like Facebook (Meta) and Twitter, which are both heading in new directions, has compounded the problem, especially for companies that have become dependent on social distribution.

Multi-year deals struck with publishers are starting to expire and Facebook’s parent company, Meta, has reportedly said it will not be renewing current arrangements in the United States, leaving some publishers with a revenue shortfall of billions of shillings.

"In the face of government pressure, it has threatened to pull out from news altogether, which would up the temperature in what has often been a fraught relationship with leading publishers. Meanwhile, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and TikTok are all rapidly growing their advertising businesses, competing directly with news media, and it is not at all clear that relations between publishers and these platforms will be any simpler than between publishers and the ‘duopoly’," adds the report.

Rise Of TikTok, Twitter's Future and LinkedIn Preference To Journalists

The study goes on to reveal that TikTok's sporadic rise to one billion regular users is not just existentially worrying for Facebook, which has seen its user base shrink and age by five years at the same time. Google is already seeing some of its lucrative search traffic peel away, with ad revenue well below market expectations.

Reuters called out the actions of Twitter boss, Elon Musk over the sacking of staff responsible for platform integrity, the suspension of critical journalists from the platform, and the flip-flopping over the role of blue ticks for verified sources.

"It seems Elon lacks media literacy, has taken a turn for the conspiratorial right, and, at worse, is driving Twitter into the ground to become a backwater which advertisers are rightly scared of," Tom Grundy, Editor-in-Chief and founder of the Hong Kong Free Press, was quoted in the study.

One research group even predicted that Twitter will lose more than 30 million users in the next few years if the experience worsens. Additionally, publishers stated in the survey that they would put less effort into both Facebook and Twitter and much more effort into TikTok.

Despite their reservations about Elon Musk, many journalists find it hard to contemplate a future without Twitter.

"It remains a one-stop shop for real-time news, as well as a good way to keep in touch with specialist sources and to promote personal brands. Overall, the majority of our respondents (51%) say it would be bad for journalism if Twitter were to implode," adds the report, which further praises how Twitter has been influential to journalism in finding stories, getting testimonies and accessing information.

By contrast, around one in five (17%) think it would be good for journalism, with some respondents suggesting that far too much time is currently spent listening to unrepresentative elites. Others feel that, while Twitter has become a key tool for journalists, it has also reduced traffic to mainstream websites, contributed to the spread of misinformation, and polluted debates.

The survey, when seeking to establish alternatives for Twitter in the event it goes down, found that four in ten journalists (42%) selected LinkedIn, a network that has invested in more editorial staff and new features to drive news conversation on the platform in recent years, despite some journalists stating that they might mix different platforms for discovery and distribution.

Facebook is reorientating itself towards mobile entertainment and commerce – and even further away from news this year – as it looks to revitalise engagement on the platform. Human curation of Facebook News has already been pulled, Instant Articles are set to be withdrawn in April 2023, and a number of those recently made redundant were in the Facebook Journalism Project or in the news partnerships team.

"Few would be surprised to see the News tab disappear entirely in the next few years. Facebook says that less than 3% of what people see in their feed are posts with links to news and that it doesn’t make sense to invest in areas that don’t align with user preferences," adds the report.

A Google executive recently revealed that 40% of young people now go to Instagram or TikTok, rather than use their own search or maps products when they are looking for a place to eat. Instagram searches are geared to help people to stay updated on trends as well as travel and fashion, while Snapchat’s Maps are optimised for local businesses.

This shift is also happening in the news, as younger users turn to using social discovery features such as hashtags and collections – as well as search itself – to find out about the latest developments across the world.

"The majority of publishers say that they will be focusing on podcasts and other digital audio (72%), email newsletters (69%), and digital video (67%) this year. Interest in short-form video production has grown partly in response to the changing social media strategies detailed in the previous section," states the report.

Amid the unpredictability of social media, most publishers see investing in podcasts and newsletters as the best way to build a deeper connection with audiences and encourage them to come back more frequently.

Future Of Advertising, Subscriptions In Media & Story Preference

It is expected that more publishers will abandon all programmatic advertising (from January 2023) and focus on direct sales. The ‘audience first’ approach is the recognition that excessive ad density and poor user experience have contributed to the problems of the news industry by confusing users and undermining trust.

To diversify revenue streams the study pointed out that more publishers are investing in subscription and membership in 2023, with 80 per cent of those surveyed saying this will be one of their most important revenue priorities, ahead of both display and native advertising.

Despite the squeeze on consumer spending, over 68 per cent still expect some growth in subscription and other paid content as income this year.

"In our survey, we find almost universal enthusiasm for explanatory journalism (94%) and Q&A formats (87%) this year, but a greater degree of scepticism around ideas like ‘solutions journalism’ (73%) – let alone moves to increase the number of positive stories (48%). This debate is often seen as a zero-sum game but our research suggests that audiences want journalists to continue to cover difficult stories and that they also want more inspiration, a broader agenda, and more fun," adds the report.