Weatherman Urges Kenyans In Nairobi & 30 Counties To Watch Out For Floods

The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a heavy rainfall alert for some parts of the country from Sunday, March 9, to Tuesday, March 11.

As per the heavy rainfall alert released on Saturday, March 8, the weatherman predicted that the rainfall will bear low to moderate severity and a moderate probability of occurrence (33% to 66% Chance).

Kenyans should, therefore, anticipate heavy rainfall of more than 20mm in 24 hours in parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, including the Nairobi area and southeastern lowlands on March 9, 2025. 

"The heavy rainfall is likely to intensify to more than 30mm in 24 hours and spread to part of northwestern Kenya on 10th March 2025. It is projected to reduce in intensity from 11 March 2025," the alert read in part.

The heavy rainfall is expected to impact the counties of Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Homabay, Siaya, Migori, Busia, Kisumu, Kisii, Nyamira, Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga and Bungoma.

Other listed counties include Baringo, Nakuru, Trans-Nzoia, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West-Pokot, Turkana, Marsabit, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Nairobi, Machakos, and Kajiado.

"Residents in all the mentioned areas are advised to be on the lookout for potential floods, flash floods and poor visibility," added Kenya Met.

"People are advised not to shelter under trees and near grilled windows to minimize exposure to lightning strikes. Updates will be provided promptly if there are any changes."

The weather alert was issued to the Presidency, the Cabinet Secretary of Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, the Principal Secretary of the State Department for Environment and Climate Change, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) and the Kenya Red Cross Society.

Other entities notified include the Kenya Maritime Authority, Kenya Ports Authority, Kenya Airports Authority, National Disaster Operations Centre, National Disaster Management Unit, Media, Government Ministries, Council of Governors, and County Directors of Meteorological Services.

Meanwhile, a recent climate study on East Africa’s rainfall patterns indicates that heavy rainfall events in Kenya will intensify, with extreme precipitation occurring more frequently.

Published last month in the Theoretical and Applied Climatology journal, the research emphasizes how global warming is altering rainfall extremes, posing significant challenges for agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods.

“The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are also projected to increase with increased greenhouse gas emissions,” finds the study by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). 

Researchers warn that East Africa is expected to experience “an increase in both the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events,” leading to more frequent flooding.

Kenya’s shifting rainfall patterns align with recent forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), both predicting erratic and intense rainfall for the upcoming March- April- May (MAM) season.

According to Kenya Met’s latest Climate Outlook for the MAM 2025 “Long Rains” season, near-to-above-average rainfall is expected in parts of western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, while northeastern Kenya and sections of the coast are likely to experience below-average rainfall. “The season is likely to be characterised by a normal to late onset, with generally poor to fair distribution in both time and space,” the Met stated in its forecast.

This forecast aligns with ICPAC’s findings, which project below-normal rainfall across much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, as well as parts of Ethiopia and Eritrea. "Below-average rainfall is expected over most of the Greater Horn of Africa, raising concerns about water shortages and prolonged dry spells," ICPAC stated in its seasonal climate report.

While some regions may experience rainfall deficits, the climate study warns that when it does rain, it will come in more intense bursts. "The increase in short-duration heavy precipitation events, combined with rising heat stress, will have significant consequences for agriculture in general and livestock production in particular," the study cautions.

Such extreme rainfall could trigger flash floods, damaging infrastructure, displacing communities, and increasing the spread of waterborne diseases. "Models predict extreme 1-day and 5-day cumulative rainfall events over Lake Victoria, eastern Congo, and the Ethiopian highlands," the study notes, warning that these conditions are expected to worsen under high-emission scenarios.