Ruto Narrowing Gap Over Raila Ahead of Elections: Poll

Deputy President William Ruto is inching closer to dethroning his Azimio la Umoja opponent, Raila Odinga in a new opinion poll released with the August 9 elections less than a month away. 

Trends and Insights Africa (TIFA) in their new poll released on Monday, July 11 revealed that Ruto’s popularity stood at 39 per cent, which is closer than Raila's at 42 per cent. 

This is compared to a similar poll on June 18 which placed Raila's popularity at 39 per cent compared to Ruto’s 32 per cent, a difference of seven per cent then compared to three per cent now. 

DP William Ruto gaining more in popularity compared to Raila Odinga. /TIFA RESEARCH

Roots Party leader George Wajackoyah is popular amongst 4 per cent of registered voters. 

10 per cent remain undecided while 5 percent provided no response.

"Both Raila and Ruto have gained compared to the last survey because of the decline of those who said they were undecided from 14 to 10 per cent," TIFA Analyst Tom Wolf explained.

The choice of Rigathi Gachagua as Ruto's running mate saw him gain 7 per cent to 53 per cent in the Mt Kenya region. 

However, despite naming Martha Karua as his running mate, Raila Odinga's popularity in the region remain stagnant at 24 per cent.

The Raila-Karua ticket scored highest in Nairobi and Nyanza regions (58 and 68 per cent respectively) while Ruto-Gachagua ticket scored highest in Central Rift and Northern Kenya (63 and 55 per cent respectively) 

The duo consisting of Wajackoyah and Roots running mate Justina Wamae scored highest in the South Rift and Lower Eastern regions (8 and 7 per cent respectively)

"A far as the Roots Party goes, you can see that more than a quarter of their current supporters say that they formerly supported ODM and only seven from UDA. We can make a tentative hypothesis that Wajackoyah is poaching or winning over more supporters from ODM than UDA," Wolf explained.

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party remains the most-popular political party at 33 per cent compared to one quarter (26 per cent) aligned to ODM, leaving all other parties with less than half of 13 per cent. 

The Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition remains the most popular at 42 per cent, though it holds a slight advantage over the Kenya Kwanza coalition which is at 35 per cent. 

Between May and June 2022, Kenya Kwanza gained by 7 per cent from 28 per cent in May while Azimio's popularity stagnated.

Raila Odinga waving to the crowd during a rally in Kirinyaga County on July 7, 2022. /RAILA ODINGA