TIFA Poll: Raila Could Win August 9 Elections in Round One

A new poll by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) has shown that Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate, Raila Odinga would win the August 9 general elections with 53 per cent of the votes compared to Deputy President William Ruto.

The Kenya Kwanza flagbearer would follow in second with a 45 per cent approval rating.

The new poll stemmed from respondents who expressed that they would participate in the August 9 polls with the figures changing to 49 per cent for Raila and 41 per cent for Ruto, that is if the undecided voters are included.

Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga at DP's Karen home. Looking on is President Uhuru Kenyatta. /THE STAR

TIFA however warned that “The outcome of the election depends on voter turnout and this cannot be predicted by surveys.”

The poll was conducted between July 31 and August 1, 2022, and interestingly, it reveals that Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is the single most popular party at 38 per cent

Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) came in second at 32 per cent with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party coming in at number three with five per cent.

The poll released on Wednesday, August 3 however noted a difference in support for the two top candidates in their home environments compared to other areas of the country.

"As was the case with political parties and the two coalitions, support for (the main) presidential candidates is concentrated in their home areas, but quite divided elsewhere," TIFA noted.

A significant proportion of Kenyans (25 per cent) indicated they have a kind of ‘divided loyalty’ in terms of party support, even if the relevance of ‘other’ party supported is mainly for ‘down-ballot’ contests.

The polling firm also noted that over the past 23 months, the presidential contest trend has shown some notable changes, with Ruto largely dominating from mid-2020 for nearly the next two years and Raila only overtaking him in May (just after each had announced their running- mates).

In simple terms, following the announcement by Raila of Martha Karua as his running mate, the former Prime Minister ghosted past his competitor, given the popularity Karua generated across the country following the announcement.

Overall, about two-thirds expect that their lives will improve within just one year if their preferred presidential candidate (and running-mate) enters State House (69 per cent).

The research firm noted that Raila is the most preferred presidential candidate amongst all the registered voters with 49 per cent, compared to Ruto's 41 per cent.

On Tuesday, the firm noted that Raila was leading at 52 per cent followed by Ruto at 34 per cent in Nairobi County. However, the second-in-command has been closing the gap on his competitor by 18 per cent compared to July when the gap was at 25 per cent in Nairobi County.

In terms of the Nairobi gubernatorial race, Senator Johnson Sakaja had his popularity go up from 23 per cent to 53 per cent against Polycarp Igathe's popularity at 36 per cent, which makes him the most popular contender to be the next Nairobi governor.

ODM's Esther Passaris is the most preferred Woman Rep candidate in Nairobi with 44 per cent with UDA's Millicent Omanga following in second at 28 per cent. The number of undecided voters dropped by a huge margin from 53 per cent to 10 per cent.