BREAKDOWN: How Raila Lost AUC Elections Despite Taking Early Lead
Raila was eliminated in narrow circumstances at the sixth round, leaving Mahamoud with an open road to victory in the AUC elections
Marvin Chege 
In what will sound like a familiar script, Kenya's former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, suffered defeat in the African Union Commission's (AUC) chairperson elections, losing to Djibouti's Mahamoud Youssouf after six rounds.
Raila was eliminated in narrow circumstances at the sixth round, leaving Mahamoud with an open road to victory in the AUC elections, and making him the seventh African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson since its establishment in 2002. The other candidate, Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar, finished last.
Raila initially led the race, winning the first two rounds but subsequently losing the next three to Mahamoud. In the first round, Raila received 20 votes, Mahamoud got 18, and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato secured 10, with one abstention.
The former Kenyan premier improved in the second round, earning 22 votes, while Mahamoud secured 19, and Randriamandrato received seven, with one country abstaining again.
It was from the third round however that the odds went against Raila. He fell behind, receiving 20 votes, as Mahamoud took the lead with 23 votes, and Randriamandrato dropped to five. One nation abstained, leading to Randriamandrato’s elimination and leaving Raila and Mahamoud in a direct contest.
Mahamoud then extended his lead in the fourth round with 25 votes against Raila’s 21, while one vote was spoiled and another nation abstained.
In the fifth round, Mahamoud secured 26 votes, Raila still garnered 21 votes, and one country abstained. The sixth round saw Mahamoud maintaining his 26 votes, with Raila gaining one more to reach 22, while one nation abstained.
Raila was then eliminated, leaving Mahamoud as the sole candidate in the seventh round, where he successfully obtained the two-thirds majority needed to win.
Speaking after the results were announced, Raila congratulated his opponent for clinching the seat and wished him the best during his term. “I had offered myself as a candidate, over the last few months I have run around the continent talking to different leaders of the continent canvassing for their vote and today they have expressed themselves. As it stands now, we did not succeed,” he said.
“We say that we must strengthen democracy in the African continent and I’m therefore conceding defeat, and I want us to use this as an example of strengthening democracy in our continent.”
Odinga added: “I want to wish my competitor Ali Youssouf all the best and success in his undertaking and also want to thank all those who voted for me and those who didn’t because of exercising their democracy.”
Reactions
The response to Raila's defeat reverberated across Kenya like wildfire. With a majority of Kenyans earlier anticipating that Raila would lose the AUC elections, Kenyans flooded social media with all manner of hilarious reactions while some voiced their disappointment.
Homa Bay Town Member of Parliament Peter Kaluma seemingly expressed his disappointment with the results indicating he would start a petition to remove the East African Community from the African Union. "I will petition the withdrawal of the East African Community from the African Union," Kaluma averred.
Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot also voiced his reaction in the aftermath of the results in a cryptic post on his X platform. This post seemingly gave the reasons behind Raila's loss. "Religion, France, Region," Cheruiyot stated.
However, no group was more stung by Raila's defeat than residents of Kondele in Kisumu County, Raila's backyard, with chants of "Ruto Must Go" renting the air. Footage seen by Viral Tea showed the residents, who were watching from a big screen, visibly distraught after learning of their popular leader's loss.
'Ruto must go’ chants erupt in Kondele, Kisumu, after Raila Odinga loses AUC chairmanship to Djibouti’s Youssouf pic.twitter.com/yN0sUzxMPu — Nation Africa (@NationAfrica) February 15, 2025
Meanwhile, residents of Nyeri in the Mt. Kenya region reacted to the news with loud celebrations, stating that Raila’s defeat would allow him to concentrate on pressing national issues.
They argued that his loss would enable him to rally members of his Azimio coalition to hold the government accountable, especially following a recent court ruling that recognized Azimio as the majority coalition in the National Assembly.
“We are so happy. We want him to come back and resume politics in the country. He should now go back to being in the Opposition and spill all the government secrets,” one of the residents at Nyeri stated. Kileleshwa Member of County Assembly Robert Alai, an ally of Raila however dismissed the sentiments of the residents of Nyeri. "Baba Raila Odinga is not coming back to be used to fight Ruto," he noted.
Conversely, Mombasa residents reacted to the news with disappointment, attributing Raila’s loss to the South African Development Community’s (SADC) decision to back Madagascar’s candidate, Richard Randriamandrato. This move seemingly shifted the race away from Raila, with reports suggesting that most SADC member states opted to support Youssouf after Richard’s elimination.
Despite the setback, Mombasa residents stressed the importance of maintaining peace and unity.
It remains unclear what steps Raila will take following his defeat. The loss is expected to bring significant disappointment within his camp, given the extensive resources invested in the campaign. Attention now turns to Raila and Ruto, as many anticipate how their relationship dynamics will evolve in light of recent events.
President William Ruto and Raila Odinga during the launch of Raila's campaign for the AUC seat on August 27, 2024. /PCS
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