Experts: Why Kenyans Should Pay Attention To US Presidential Elections 2024
With only a few days to the vote, most political analysts and pundits across the aisle concur that this year’s presidential election is too close to call
Marvin Chege 
The United States (US) will enter arguably the most important week in its history when voters on Tuesday, November 5 take to the ballot to elect the country's 47th President. The outcome of the presidential elections could...or not, have a significant impact as far as policies on Africa and Kenya are concerned.
However, some states have electoral laws that allow early voting, both by mail and in person. American voters who work outside the country, such as diplomatic and military agents, are also allowed to mail in their votes, some of which would be counted even after the actual voting day, depending on the electoral laws of the various states.
With only a few days to the vote, most political analysts and pundits across the aisle concur that this year’s presidential election is too close to call, with campaigns finally narrowed to the “battle-ground” states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
This year, a new face will ascend to the highest seat in the American nation, which proudly boasts of being a world superpower. Former President Donald Trump is aiming to return to the very seat he clinched in 2016 for a term before losing out to incumbent Joe Biden four years ago while Vice President Kamala Harris is aiming to become the first woman to be the President of the United States (POTUS) and succeed Biden like how Kenya's President William Ruto, then Deputy, succeeded former President Uhuru Kenyatta, his boss, following the 2022 general elections.
Worth noting
Biden, the 46th and incumbent president of the United States, announced his candidacy for re-election for a second presidential term on April 25, 2023, with Harris as his running mate. He suspended the campaign on July 21, 2024, and endorsed Kamala as his successor.
President William Ruto and his US counterpart, Joe Biden inside the White House on May 23, 2024. /PCS
Kamala in turn launched her own campaign later that day. By July 22, 2024, Harris had secured enough delegates to become the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Kenyans Watching
This now begs the question, why should Kenyans pay attention to the upcoming polls? Speaking to Viral Tea via our exclusive Spill The Tea weekly newsletter on LinkedIn (Click here to read), Esther Nyonje, a Millenial Political Risk Analyst, outlined Kenya's emergence as the USA's partner of choice in an African continent, terming the first state visit by President Ruto (An African Leader) in 16 years signalled the strengthening of US-Kenya ties.
According to her, the US election will influence five key factors in Kenya: Economic Relations, Foreign Aid and Investment, Diplomatic Relations, Global Influence and Security Cooperation.
"The United States is the largest financial contributor to the IMF and the largest shareholder at the World Bank, some Kenyans view the U.S. government as partially responsible for the proposed tax hikes. Ruto’s decision to supply the police force for the U.S.-government-backed mission to Haiti was supported by the Biden administration," she explained.
"In 2020, President Trump and (former) President Uhuru Kenyatta began free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations. Upon his swearing-in in 2021, President Biden terminated the FTA negotiations and instead launched the US-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) in July 2022. As the STIP negotiations near their second year, more details about the potential agreement are coming to light – raising excitement and condemnations in different industries."
Per her sentiments, in early May, Kenya and the US hosted their 5th round of negotiations on STIP and while the US has shown great willingness to conclude negotiations and finalize STIP ahead of November’s US election, it is unclear at the moment whether or not this will happen.
Nyonje opined that the US government ought to more outwardly express its solidarity with the Kenyan people’s calls for more responsive democracy. "The U.S. government should strengthen its partnership not just with the executive but also through renewed support for Kenyan institutions that serve as checks on presidential power, including the courts, media, and civil society. Such support should not only be financial but also political," she continued.
"The U.S. government should back these institutions, publicly and privately, when they assert constitutional checks and balances. Recent U.S. government actions and inactions, from its perceived silence on the crackdowns against civil society to its support for Ruto’s Haiti deployment despite Kenyan court orders, have placed U.S. policy at odds with these very actors and institutions."
Harris Or Trump?
In terms of the outcome of either a Harris or Trump victory, trade experts say Africa is not generally high up the priority list for the US foreign policy priorities and hence there might be little shift irrespective of who wins. Trump for instance never visited Africa during his tenure as POTUS. Biden is visiting Angola in December, long after the world would have known the winner of the elections next week.
Historically, two-term presidents have waited until their second term to establish their legacies on the continent, and many one-term presidents have neglected it altogether. Biden has said he will come to discuss trade, infrastructure and democracy. But he will not make any commitments over that.
Regardless of who wins, analysts believe the battle against China for critical minerals in Africa will be the primary driver of both parties’ policies toward Africa. “The US is very focused on this election and I can tell you it is basically a week from today. So in Kenya on Wednesday morning, we will have an idea of what has happened,” Meg Whitman, US ambassador to Kenya, said as quoted by the Nation.
This year’s polls have renewed interest in Africa as the bitter rivalry between Harris (Democratic Party) and Trump (Republican Party) threatens to spill over globally. Trade, climate change, insecurity, food security, terrorism threats, health, and conflict in the Horn of Africa, are key concerns on the continent.
Whitman however noted that the policies on the continent as well as in Kenya will not change much irrespective of who takes over after Biden. “As you know it is a very close election. What I will say, and I have been asked this question a lot of times, will it change the relationship with (Kenya) whoever wins? And the answer to that, I believe, is NO,” she added.
“We have had many presidents in the 60 years of our relationship and this is the strongest relationship that America has on the continent and maybe even in the world. So I can assure you that whoever is elected will continue to work with Kenya much as we have.”
Washington is expected to remain focused on balancing economic interests and security concerns, as both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge Africa's strategic importance in the shifting geopolitical landscape. However, the parties’ differing approaches may influence how US policy is perceived by African and European partners.
Since 1964, Kenya and the US have maintained close ties regardless of the change in regimes in the respective countries and this will continue to be so heading into the next four years and beyond. Kenya holds a special place in the US foreign policy agenda as it is the superpower's strongest ally in the East African and Sub-Saharan region.
Side by side of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. /GETTY IMAGES.NBC NEWS
Kenya is a critical US security partner in East Africa especially in the fight against terrorism and in particular Al Shabaab. The US Department of State has over the years helped build the capacity of the Kenya Defence Forces to advance counterterrorism, border security, maritime security, and broader professionalisation efforts.
US Polls Outcome On Kenya Partnerships
The recent signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Kenya and the US the upgrade of Manda Bay airfield in Kenya and the strengthening of the joint US-Kenya operation base. A political expert told Viral Tea that a Harris win will likely ensure continuity in the Biden administration's policy of promoting trade, climate change mitigation, and human rights. It will also bring to fruition the various trade agreements, including the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) President Ruto signed off on in his May visit to the White House.
"Meanwhile, a Trump win will likely focus more on securing security partnerships with Kenya and shielding off China's influence in Kenya. The battle for influence in Kenya and Africa will likely increase under Trump, particularly the rights to mine minerals and the expansion of technologies, and he will likely come up with new policies to compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)," the expert revealed.
