Infotrak Poll: Raila Leading Presidential Race in 24 Counties

Raila would therefore lead the August elections with 49 per cent and would inch closer to the 11.4 million votes required to win the elections.

Marvin Chege Marvin Chege
Aug 4, 2022 - 05:46 Updated: Aug 4, 2022 - 05:46
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Infotrak Poll: Raila Leading Presidential Race in 24 Counties
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during the launch of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition party manifesto at Nyayo Stadium on June 6, 2022. /FILE

An Infotrak poll released on Wednesday, August 3 showed that Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate, Raila Odinga would win the August 9 general elections in at least 24 out of the 47 counties, if the polls were to be held right now.

The poll showed that Raila would win with 10.8 million votes in the 24 counties if the voter turnout was 99 per cent. This translates to 49 per cent.

Raila would therefore lead the August elections with 49 per cent and would inch closer to the 11.4 million votes required to win the elections.

Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga at DP's Karen home. Looking on is President Uhuru Kenyatta. /THE STAR

On the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, which consists of Deputy President William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua, the duo would lead in 17 counties, thus would get 9.3 million votes.

The polling firm showed that if there was a 99 per cent voter turnout, Ruto would get the majority of the 9.3 million votes in the 17 counties.

In addition, Ruto would trail his opponent at 42 per cent, with the 6 per cent of undecided voters forcing both candidates into a run-off as neither of them would reach the 50+1 per cent mark required to win the votes.

The poll is similar to one conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) which showed that Raila would win the August 9 elections with 53 per cent of the votes compared to Ruto.

The Kenya Kwanza flagbearer would follow in second with a 45 per cent approval rating.

The new poll stemmed from respondents who expressed that they would participate in the August 9 polls with the figures changing to 49 per cent for Raila and 41 per cent for Ruto, that is if the undecided voters are included.

TIFA however warned that “The outcome of the election depends on voter turnout and this cannot be predicted by surveys.”

Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) came in second at 32 per cent with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party coming in at number three with five per cent.

The poll released on Wednesday, August 3 however noted a difference in support for the two top candidates in their home environments compared to other areas of the country.

Economist David Ndii however differed with the polls, arguing that Raila had already lost his former Western and Ukambani battlegrounds after he refused to pick Wiper party leader, Kalonzo Musyoka and chose Martha Karua instead.

"Raila’s path to victory is to maintain his strongholds and gain in Mount Kenya. He needs to gain the 7 per cent he lost in the last two elections. He also needs to gain the ground he has lost," he said during a Citizen TV interview.

Economist David Ndii. /THE STAR

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