Ruto, Raila Almost Level In New Poll

Trends and Insights Africa (TIFA) has unveiled the results of a new poll revealing that Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga are closing in on each other.

Raila's popularity grew by 4 per cent to stand at 46.7 per cent, while Ruto grew by 5 per cent to 44.4 per cent, meaning neither of the top two candidates would breach the 50+1 per cent mark required to win the August 9 general elections.

The poll released on Friday, July 29 also revealed that Roots Party's George Luchiri Wajackoyah has a popularity rating of 1.8 per cent while Agano Party's David Mwaure came last with a 0.1 per cent approval rating.

DP William Ruto and Raila Odinga almost neck-in-neck in latest TIFA poll. /VIRALTEAKE

The poll comes after the presidential debate held on Tuesday, July 26, where only Ruto and Mwaure were in attendance.

"Compared to the results from TIFA's June survey, the distribution of expressed voting intentions for Odinga has changed somewhat across the country in that he has gained in all the nine zones apart from Central Rift (-5 per cent), his biggest gains being in South Rift, Nyanza, Western and Lower Eastern. (+15 per cent, 13 per cent, +13 per cent and +12 per cent respectively).

"Those intending to vote for DP Ruto overwhelming mention one or another aspect of the economic situation," read the TIFA poll in part.

TIFA  Analyst Tom Wolf further noted that 4 per cent of Kenyans would remain undecided if the elections were held today.

The polls further noted that Raila's support in Nairobi county was at 51 per cent, while Ruto's support was placed at 34 per cent.

Ruto and his running mate, Rigathi Gachagua, however, dominated the Mt Kenya region with a 66 per cent popularity compared to Raila and his running mate, Martha Karua, who had a popularity of 27 per cent.

The reverse was in Nyanza where Raila enjoyed popularity of 80 per cent compared to Ruto's 12 per cent. Raila was also popular in South Rift and Western regions.

Wajackoyah's popularity notably went above the 1 per cent mark in Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya and Nyanza regions. Mwaure gained slight support in the Coast region with 1 per cent.

In terms of gender, Raila was more popular with males than females, with 51 per cent and 42 per cent respectively. However, Ruto was more popular with females (46 per cent) compared to males (43 per cent).

UDA Party presidential candidate and Deputy President William Ruto during the presidential debate at the Catholic University of Eastern Africa on July 26, 2022. /FILE

Raila was more popular with Kenyans over the age of 35 (47 per cent) than those between 18-24 (46 per cent) while Ruto was more popular with Kenyans between 18-24 years (46 per cent) compared to those over 35 years (43 per cent).

The survey was carried out in 9 zones; Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

In TIFA's previous poll, Ruto’s popularity stood at 39 per cent, which was closer than Raila's at 42 per cent. This was compared to a similar poll on June 18 which placed Raila's popularity at 39 per cent compared to Ruto’s 32 per cent, a difference of seven per cent then compared to three per cent at that time.