How Raila's Election As AU Chairperson Will Affect 2027 Bid

Azimio la Umoja leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's declaration of interest in succeeding Moussa Faki as the African Union Chairperson has sparked conversation within political circles, with questions surrounding his possible bid for presidency in 2027.

Odinga, who declared his bid on Thursday, February 15 will need to lobby the 55 member states for backing for the prestigious position.

He will first need to consolidate the seven member states of the East African Community (EAC) which comprises Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, DR Congo and South Sudan.

The surprise declaration during a press conference at his Karen residence in the company of former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo put his Kenyan political future in question as should he be elected, he will be required to serve for four years per term, which will be renewed once.

Given that this will be a full-time diplomatic role, local politics will be out of the question for officeholders, meaning that should Raila be successfully elected, the role effectively locks him out of the 2027 presidential race whilst Azimio is scrambling for a suitable candidate to dethrone President William Ruto.

If endorsed for the AU's top seat, the 79-year-old will be tasked with enforcing the regional bloc's financial regulations, chairing all commission meetings and deliberations, popularising the AU's objectives, submitting reports to the assembly, executive council and permanent member states as well as act as a depository for all AU treaties and legal instruments.

The AU Commission Chair post elevates the holder to a near Head of State with the office holder being a key player in major international happenings, including elections, conflicts and development, not only in Africa but globally. 

According to the document depicting the code of conduct for the said holder's office, Odinga will be forced to take a break from Kenya's political landscape to embrace neutrality in political contests across Africa.

The code of conduct also stipulates that the regional bloc's chair is barred from any other appointment to a public office unless upon resignation.

Should Raila be endorsed by all 55 member states, then his status in the 2027 general elections will be reduced to that of being a voter with the right to vote in Kenya as compared to the additional role of being a presidential candidate and campaigning for votes across the country.

The AU regulations are thus likely to remove Raila from contention in 2027 should he secure the chairmanship since the earliest he will assume office is January 2025.

Expected to serve a four-year term, which means that should he officially start in 2025, his first term would run until 2029, which is two years after the 2027 polls. In the event he declares interest for a second term, he would go from 2029 to 2033, a year after the 2032 polls.

During the presser, Raila declared that he was ready to serve the African continent following consultations.

"I am inclined to accept the challenge and I am ready and I offer myself to be of service. I have asked my friend (Former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo) to continue to be a good ambassador and talk to other people," he said.

The declaration saw politicians both from Azimio and Kenya Kwanza unite in support of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, given his prominence in Africa and the rest of the world.

To secure the role, Raila may need the support of President Ruto, according to reports, something he has not done since losing to Ruto in the 2022 elections.

Media reports claimed that the Head of State had been convincing Raila to consider going for the post, with Ruto alleged to embark on pushing his candidacy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Some say that the AU chairperson role could offer Raila some taste of victory, a rare instance given that he has lost five general elections in Kenya that he has contested for President.

Raila will need support either by consensus or at least a two-thirds majority vote by member states represented by their heads if he is to bag the AU prestigious post which promises a plush basic monthly salary of $15,576.75, which is Ksh2.3 million at the current exchange rates.