Poll Shows Who Is Most Likely To Challenge Ruto In 2027 Elections

Jubilee’s presidential flagbearer, Fred Matiang’i, is shaping up as President William Ruto’s strongest challenger ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to a new Infotrak opinion poll.

The end-of-year survey, released on Sunday, December 28, shows that while Ruto remains the frontrunner for re-election, Matiang’i is the only contender within striking distance—fueling debate over whether a united opposition would back him to take on the president in 2027.

The poll, conducted between December 19 and 20, indicates that if an election were held today, Ruto would win with 28 per cent support. Matiang’i follows at 13 per cent, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka close behind at 12 per cent.

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, PLP leader Martha Karua, and former Chief Justice David Maraga trail further back, each polling between five and two per cent. Notably, 31 per cent of respondents said they were still undecided.

Even with those numbers, the survey flags significant voter uncertainty, with 31 per cent of respondents still undecided and a further four per cent declining to name their preferred presidential candidate—just 20 months before the General Election.

Infotrak’s findings show a drop in undecided voters from 43 per cent to 29 per cent since the previous poll, with Mount Kenya and Western regions recording the highest levels of indecision at 36 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively.

On political alignments, the data indicates that President Ruto’s administration retains a clear edge, as 32 per cent of Kenyans say they feel closest to the Kenya Kwanza government. In contrast, 22 per cent identify with the United Opposition led by Gachagua and his allies.

Support for the broad-based formation is strongest in the North Eastern, Rift Valley, Nyanza, and Western regions, while the united opposition draws most of its backing from Eastern and Central Kenya.

Meanwhile, the relatively new Kenya Moja Alliance—associated with Babu Owino, Senator Edwin Sifuna, and Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba—has gained notable traction, winning the confidence of 17 per cent of respondents.

Babu Owino also posted a strong showing in the presidential preference rankings, placing fourth with seven per cent support, ahead of Gachagua, Martha Karua, and David Maraga.

Raila's Successor

In a separate ranking, Embakasi East Member of Parliament (MP) Babu Owino also posted a strong showing, placing fourth overall with seven per cent support—outperforming Gachagua, Karua, and Maraga.

Babu also topped the poll as the most preferred next political kingpin among the Luo community and a broader base that previously backed the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

He led with 33 per cent, followed by ODM chairperson Oburu Odinga at 10 per cent and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga at seven per cent.

Siaya Governor James Orengo registered four per cent, while Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi and Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo each polled at two per cent. Other figures—including Winnie Odinga, John Mbadi, Anyang’ Nyong’o, and Miguna Miguna—each attracted marginal support.

Babu Owino speaking during the Masters Mind Gala Awards on December 4, 2025. /BABU OWINO