5 Instances That Could Cost Raila In Presidential Petition

Raila on Tuesday, August 16 indicated that his party may seek redress at the Supreme Court but many Kenyans fear that he may not be as lucky as he was during the 2017 petition

5 Instances That Could Cost Raila In Presidential Petition
Raila Odinga and President-elect William Ruto. /VIRALTEAKE

Former Prime Minister and Azimio la Umoja coalition leader Raila Odinga is under growing pressure from Kenyans across the country, a section of politicians, even those from other countries to reconsider challenging the just-announced presidential results at the Supreme Court.

Julius Malema's party, the Economic Freedom Fighters from South Africa, has become the latest individual to call upon Raila to accept defeat, and the party went to the extent of recognizing President-elect, William Ruto.

“The EFF calls on rivals, the contestants, and in particular, Raila Odinga to accept the results of the elections and act with restraint with their supporters. It should never be in the name of any presidential candidate that Africa should re-live the harrowing experience of the past characterised by an elections aftermath of brutal violence,” EFF said.

“The EFF calls on the President-elect and his supporters to be magnanimous in victory and Raila Odinga to be gracious in the defeat for the good of peace and order in Kenya.”

File image of South African politician Julius Malema. /FILE

Raila on Tuesday, August 16 indicated that his party may seek redress at the Supreme Court but many Kenyans fear that he may not be as lucky as he was during the 2017 petition that nullified the election results, the first time in Kenya's history that has ever happened.

Juliana Cherera's mathematical error and IEBC quorum

Trouble started even before the official announcement of the results by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), declaring Ruto as president-elect. Three of its commissioners and Vice Chairperson Juliana Cherera protested the results in two press conferences held at Serena Hotel, away from the Bomas of Kenya venue, in two days.

They accused IEBC boss, Wafula Chebukati of being "opaque" in the tallying process and hence could not take responsibility for the outcome. The exit of the four commissioners left behind only three others Wafula Chebukati (chairperson), Bola Moyu, and Abdi Guliye. 

“Any results IEBC Chair Wafula Chebukati announces are invalid because he had no quorum of commissioners to hold a plenary and make such a weighty decision. The ongoing process at Bomas is now illegal,” Prof Makau Mutua, the spokesperson of the Raila Odinga campaign secretariat, led a section of Kenyans complaining about IEBC's quorum to announce the results.

However, a number of lawyers believe that the person mandated to declare the results of a presidential election is the chairperson who is the returning officer. 

By law, IEBC must meet a quorum to undertake its obligation in carrying out an election exercise that states they shall not be less than a half, and it reads: "The quorum for the conduct of business at a meeting of the Commission shall be at least half of the existing members of the Commission, provided that the quorum shall not be less than three members."

In a Supreme Court ruling in April this year on the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), IEBC won the protracted court battle when it was found that it had a quorum to verify the signatures, opening the pathway for the commission ahead of this year's general election at a time when it had just three commissioners.

Moreover, Cherera's mathematical blunder, which she still has not issued a statement on, could be used as a weapon by the Kenya Kwanza faction against Azimio's petition. In her words, the vote tally was in excess of 0.01% which translates to over 140,000 votes, a tally that Viral Tea questioned and denied.

Election Observers Countering Commissioners Rejecting Ruto's Win

The Elections Observation Group (ELOG) took the IEBC's side over Chebukati's decision to announce the results, with a warning that if the announcement was delayed, it could have led to grave consequences.

Additionally, ELOG underlined that the results concurred with their projections following their participation in observing the voter tallying at the polling stations. As per the observer's analysis, Ruto was projected to win the August 9 polls in the first round at 50.7 per cent which was 0.3 per cent higher than that announced by Chebukati.

"ELOG received, verified and analyzed observation reports from 99% of its PVT observers from 990 polling stations. These observers arrived at their assigned polling stations at 5:30 am and remained there throughout voting and counting until the results for the presidential election for the polling station were announced and posted.

"PVT observers reported the official results as announced by the presiding officers for sampled polling stations via coded text messages using their mobile phones," it stated.

UDA Reporting to IEBC Over Govt Interference During Polls

United Democratic Alliance (UDA) chief agent, Kithure Kindiki, wrote to the IEBC implicating President Uhuru Kenyatta in a scheme to use public officers to interfere with the electoral process.

Kindiki argued that police officers and national government administrators were being used to compromise the August 9 votes in favour of Raila. In addition, Kindiki revealed that the outgoing Head of State committed an electoral offence not only by publicly endorsing a presidential candidate but also by allegedly using state resources to fund his campaign.

"Section 16 of the Public Officers Ethics Act (2003) requires complete political neutrality by all public officers and prohibits them from acting as agents for or furthering the interests of a political party or candidate in an election," Kindiki argued.

Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga during the 'handshake' in 2018. /BBC

The same claims were made by Ruto when he accused the government of allegedly arm-twisting administrators and law enforcement officials to ensure Raila wins the elections, failure to which they would lose their jobs.

It is worth it to note that the same state patronage had led to the disbandment of the BBI.

IEBC Portal

One of the most significant changes to the 2022 general elections compared to 2017 was the introduction of a public portal whereby Kenyans across the country could download 46,229 Form 34As and 291 Form 34Bs, and tally the results themselves.

"Even as we came to Bomas, it is only someone from the moon who didn't know the results. Let's be honest with one another.

"Any institution that bothered to tally the results came to the same conclusion. With a simple calculator, you would tally the results," Ruto told journalists after he was duly elected as Kenya's 5th Head of State.

Many Kenyans across the country and local, as well as international media houses, spent time downloading the forms and carrying out their independent tallying results, and a majority of them pointed out Ruto's eventual victory. What Chebukati insinuated, in effect, was that if errors are found in Form 34A, the officials who compiled them would be held directly responsible.

Unlike in 2017, when returning officers were temporary staff who could get away with malpractices, this time around, they are permanent employees. And they will each be held liable if errors are noted in the stations they were in charge.

In the second, Chebukati appeared to aim a dagger at both the Judiciary and the media, who had put him on the spot over his handling of the 2017 election, which the Supreme Court nullified. Although the outcome of the poll was not disputed, the judges said the process had neither been transparent nor verifiable.

By putting all the results in a portal, which Chebukati assured all and sundry would remain immutable, he had, in one blow, ensured that the presidential election complies with the Supreme Court ruling. This, therefore, makes it difficult for the Supreme Court to nullify this year’s election unless one has earthshaking evidence.

Defence Team

Agano Party leader David Mwaure has already declared that he would oppose any petition challenging Ruto's win. To make sure, Mwaure disclosed that his party has evidence that some goons who tried to interfere with the tallying exercise at Bomas are linked to Azimio.

"We in Agano cannot sit back and see schemes to disrupt the verification, lies and violence being allowed to take place in this nation. Our chief agent and others have evidence of goons who came in to the tallying floor, disguised as observers but working as agents of Azimio and were carrying with them documents which they were getting from Azimio Chief Agent and corner.

Agano Party presidential candidate David Mwaure when he arrived at the Catholic University of East Africa for the presidential debate on July 26, 2022. /NAIROBI NEWS

"During the process and a tussle there a computer disappeared among others. This we strongly condemn," he stated.

Former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) president, Nelson Havi, also promised to challenge Raila's petition, vowing to use their arguments on IEBC quorum against them and the court's determination on the same in the BBI case.